13 December 2018 08:16:44 GMT

The Third Rock Forum - Politics

Article Title
Osbourne and Bank of England after Brexit
Author
Annie
Topic Section(s)
Politics
 
 
Submitted : 01-07-2016 14:16
Amended : 00-00-0000 00:00
Status : Approved:  
Likes : 2
Dislikes : 0

Whether you were a remainer or a leaver, we are here now and we all have to work together.  We have two years at least before we actually leave the party.  Trade agreements are in tact until then, companies remain until then, banks and bank levies remain the same until then.  True, the world is in flux about what the future in the UK will look like, but we're still paying in the money to the club, and we can still use all the facilities.  My gym does not tell me that I can't use the pool, when they ask me in the January if I am renewing in May.  So what's going on?  I think its absolutely disgusting that the Bank of England, and George Osbourne are talking down our economy when we only took the decision a few days ago.  Are they trying to shape the future by pulling away the carpet so they can say "I told you so"?  This country has two full years to take stock, put foundations in place, and hopefully make sure we are on a good footing when we do eventually leave.  Yes, it would have been easier to stay in, yes, we could have continued to enjoy financial security if we hadn't turned our back on Europe, but the people have spoken.  We must stand up to the plate and take the flack.  George Osbourne and the Bank of England should be "bigging" us up.  They should be saying we still have two full years, to work on our econony.  We can still bring in taxes, we can still invest in our infrastructure, we can still "use the pool" and build up our shoulder muscles so that when, in the end, we do have to leave, we can go forward, a better swimmer, and be welcomed into another, maybe bigger pool, at another gym.  Get out of your  "moaney minnie, I told you so", cubicle George and Mark, and whizz out, in your speedos and get on with the job we're paying you for.  Make this country great.  We can survive and thrive, if we just try harder.

Replies

Status: Approved
Reply Date : 01-07-2016 15:09
Author : georgebundle
Project reality

Amongst many diverse interpretations relating to the post credit period, Annie has a respectable take on it. We all have. But we are without the financial responsibility that the Governor or the Chancellor have. For us it is easy to imagine Motherhood and Apple pie.

The UK is a great country. It will develop a new reality, two, three or five years from now. Meanwhile, there will be diminished business investment, tax take and increased Social Security expenditure.  The Governor and the Chancellor will need to deal with the consequences. They warned about this. It was their duty. No need for a degree in economics to know this. 

All we need to do is to pay the rent or mortgage and manage our borrowings as well as we can. Some of us will fail in the interim period while the UK establishes the new reality.

We shall still keep our optimism about the UK and those responsible for the country's economy will still report reality to us even if it may be inconvenient to hear.

Georgebundle

Status: Approved
Reply Date : 11-07-2016 10:39
Author : Nick
Talking down the UK

I have followed the various contributions on the UK's EU referendum with interest and I have some sympathy with Paul G's contention that it is a good idea to separate what we know has or will happen from what we merely think (i.e. guess) may happen.  

There is something else we should do. We should at least try to explore the motives that prompted the protagonists to promote particular speculations.  We can't be sure but  we can make some intelligent guesses. Those who predicted dire economic consequences wanted the UK to remain in the EU.  Some of them predicted these consequences because they truly believed it was in the UK's interest.  Note the word 'believed'.   But there were others who predicted dire consequences if we left, because they were motivated by a desire to hold on to their extremely well-paid jobs.  After all, there are 10,000 bureaucrats and politicians in Brussels earning more than the UK prime minister.  And it provides many well-paid sinecures for politicians and economists from all over Europe who have passed their sell-by date.

It is one week since we voted to leave.  We still don't know the economic consequences.  Shares fell; then recovered in many cases to higher levels than before the referendum.  Sterling fell and has recovered a little.  The fall in sterling helps exports which is a factor in the recovery of share prices but there is also an element of correction to the hysterical response to the leave vote.

What will happen now, we don't know.  There is uncertainty. As we are continually told, we are in uncharted territory.  But we can be certain of one thing.  If Mark Carney and George Osborne talk the UK down, they will not merely be predicting the future, they will be helping to make it happen. Of course if there was clear evidence that the country was experiencing serious economic difficulties, we would expect Carney and Osborne to have prepared measures to deal with the situation. But to announce the measures and difficulties before the problems arise is irresponsible.

So why on earth are they doing it?  Is it sour grapes because their advice was ignored? Is Osborne taking the opportunity to abandon an economic target he had little chance of hitting.  .We cannot know.  But we can be sure that their predictions of dire economic consequences make these consequences much more likely.

In private they may say what they like. But in public, their job is to state what they know, not what they think might happen.  If they wish to speculate, they should talk the UK up, not down. They are public employees, and owe a duty of care to those who pay their salaries.